Face of Truth | Ibrahim Shaglaawi From Bahir Dar to Khartoum… A Shadow War and the Blackmail of Return

The war in our country is entering a new phase following the targeting of Khartoum International Airport on Monday with drones, in a development that cannot be isolated from its regional dimensions. This comes after the Sudanese Armed Forces announced documents indicating that the operation originated from within Ethiopian territory, specifically from Bahir Dar Airport, thereby expanding the theater of war from Sudan’s internal borders to the broader space of the Horn of Africa and its balances of power.

In this article, we attempt to read this scene from an angle that goes beyond the immediate security incident, to unpack its regional dimensions and the calculations of its actors, and whether what is unfolding reflects a temporary escalation or a deeper transformation in the nature and trajectory of the conflict.

The reading of this event begins with its timing, as its implications are amplified by the gradual resumption of airport operations, including the reception of regional flights carrying returnees from Kuwait, Cairo, and Riyadh, alongside the regular operations of the national carrier from Port Sudan. This reflects the beginning of recovery and an attempt to break out of the isolation imposed by war.

This reading becomes clearer with the statement by the official spokesperson of the Sudanese Armed Forces, who confirmed possession of technical and intelligence evidence indicating that drones were launched from within Ethiopian territory, from Bahir Dar Airport, carrying out attacks that reached areas inside Sudan, including Khartoum Airport. This clarification moves the issue beyond internal war into what resembles the beginnings of a regional conflict.

This characterization was not limited to the military institution alone, as Foreign Minister Mohiuddin Salim affirmed that Sudan is facing an attack on its sovereignty and is prepared for all scenarios in dealing with this escalation.

It is clear that this statement goes beyond diplomatic tone to reflect a shift in the security dimension toward an open field of all options. This alignment between the Foreign Ministry and the military confirms the unity of the Sudanese state’s characterization of the attacks.

This development represents a transition of the Sudanese crisis from internal clashes to a broader struggle of competing ambitions, where regional geography intersects with the battlefield, and sovereign structures become tools of political pressure. Accordingly, the targeting of Khartoum Airport does not appear as an isolated military act, but rather as an attempt to disrupt the recovery process, obstruct the state’s return to its regional environment, and reimpose the conditions and timing of that return within what can be described as the “blackmail of return.”

At the domestic level, this development reveals that the Sudanese state has moved from managing an internal war—described in international narratives as linked to external ambitions and support—to a more complex phase in which military dimensions intersect with political pressure aimed at reproducing the reality of the pre–April 15, 2023 era.

In contrast, a growing consciousness within Sudanese society is taking shape, affirming that a return to that past is no longer possible, and that any attempt to impose it through military, political, or regional tools will not be met with acceptance, regardless of the forms of pressure or their varying paths.

Regionally, the inclusion of Ethiopia in Sudan’s statement reflects the crisis’s shift to a more complex level within the Horn of Africa, placing IGAD and the African Union before a real test to contain escalation in an environment of intertwined interests. In this context, the Saudi position calling for preventing the use of neighboring states’ territories for hostile acts gains particular importance, as it reinforces the essence of the Sudanese narrative and provides it with regional backing, alongside calls for de-escalation, adherence to the “Jeddah Declaration,” and protection of civilians.

With Sudan’s security closely linked to that of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, Khartoum’s summoning of its ambassador to Addis Ababa stands as an indicator of a measured escalation that may open the door to possible regional and international complaints.

In an important development, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the drone attack on Khartoum Airport, affirming its rejection of any infringement on Sudan’s sovereignty or civilian infrastructure, and warning that attacks launched from neighboring countries’ territories could expand the conflict regionally. This condemnation is significant as it represents the first official regional stance following Sudan’s accusations against Ethiopia, and in light of the red lines previously declared by Cairo regarding Sudan’s stability.

Within this framework, an Ethiopian statement was issued yesterday denying the Sudanese accusations and exchanging counter-allegations, while calling for a political solution, in a discourse that reflects an approach extending beyond mere denial toward an attempt to impose a political narrative aimed at restoring the militia and its supporters to power. However, this position collides with the Sudanese Armed Forces’ statement, which directly accuses both Ethiopia and the UAE of involvement in the attacks.

Thus, the crisis appears closer to a complex regional web in which roles and interests intersect, placing the file on the path of international law related to attacks on civilian facilities, and redefining the rules of engagement in the region.

If military escalation has revealed part of this regional entanglement, the hydropolitical background remains an equally significant pressure factor, with reservoir levels in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remaining high at around forty-seven billion cubic meters, coinciding with the approaching rainy season and operational complexities. This increases the likelihood of irregular water discharges and their potential impact on Sudan and the safety of populations along the Blue Nile banks, adding another layer to the complex regional pressure equation.

Within this intertwining of security, sovereignty, and resources, the Sudanese crisis enters, according to #Face_of_Truth, a phase known as the “complex conflict,” where the local intersects with the regional, and the military with the political. This confirms that what is happening between Bahir Dar and Khartoum goes beyond scattered attacks, approaching a reconfiguration of power balances in the Horn of Africa. Amid escalating attempts to impose new realities through a shadow war and the widening of regional positions rejecting uncontrolled escalation, the region appears to be at a critical juncture reshaping the boundaries of influence and deterrence equations.

May you remain well and in good health.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Shglawi55@gmail.